Pakistan

There is a news in a section of the press that there is a perfect understanding between Pakistan and US governments regarding drone attacks conducted by America in Pakistan areas against prize Al Qaeda and Taliban targets. The Foreign Relations Committee of America have asked Pakistan government to let the aforementioned be known to its people. Will any government official take the trouble to do so or deny the same? Will someone raise the question in National Assembly?

After the recent visit of President of Pakistan, Mr. Asif Ali Zardari to France, Foreign Minister of Pakistan states that France has agreed to provide civilian nuclear technology to Pakistan on the lines of recent American Indian deal on the subject. However, the French spokesperson says that France has offered its services to Pakistan with regards to nuclear safety of Pakistan's arsenal. Who is to be believed; foreign minister of Pakistan or French spokesperson!

If the news released by Pakistan Army are to be believed, the operation against Taliban in Swat region is progressing successfully. It is hoped that such news are correct, otherwise, Pakistan Army will, sooner or later, be exposed and loose its trust in its citizens and even internationally. Taliban must be in a desparate situation. Their reactions in this state need to be carefully appreciated and appropriate measures should be taken against these expected reactions. For this purpose Pakistan can be split into three areas. Firstly Swat region, secondly, those areas where Taliban exist in organized way like North and South Waziristan, Khyber agency, Mohmand agency and the likes, and thirdly, the rest of Pakistan where there is relative peace and Taliban activities have been in the form of isolated terrorists actions like suicide bombings and explosions. The primary aim of Taliban will be to loosen the pressure faced by them in Swat region to break the encirclement so as to live to fight for another day. They are likely to do so by diverting the attention of Army, Pakistan government, people of Pakistan and the rest of the world from the current operations. In Swat region they will resort to hostage taking of the people trapped in the battleground, the news of which have already started appearing. Taliban can intensify their activities in second category of areas where they have some sort of domination/control which would require more troops to deal with the situation. In the rest of Pakistan, they are likely to increase the terrorist activities by resorting to more suicide attacks and explosions. The refugee camps established in the neighbourhood of Swat also offer themselves as soft targets. And, if by any chance, the situation permits, they will counter attack troops operating in Swat from outside the current battlefield. Kidnapping, particularly, of foreigners is yet another possibility.

So, in nutshell, by undertaking operation in Swat, the entire country has become more vulnerable to the terorists' activities of Taliban. Whereas, it is expected that the government must be taking appropriate measures to deal with the above mentioned possible reactions of Taliban, we, as citizens, also need to keep our eyes and ears open to protect ourselves and help government do its job. Gathering intelligence has so far been the weakest link to deal with Taliban. And, it is the failure of intelligence again which may offer success to Taliban achieving their short and long term objectives.

Today is May 12, 2009. Two years ago, the city witnessed killing of dozens of people on its roads and streets once then suspended Chief Justice of Supreme Court landed at Karachi to go to the bar. Musharraf and were in power in Pakistan and Karachi respectively. Electronic media showed dozens of large containers blocking the routes from the airport to the bar. Who could have done that other than the government? Yet insists that the violence took place at the behest of its opponents. Musharraf held his own ill advised rally in the capital to prove that he was very popular. Almost all the parties in Karachi, and , had announced shutter down strikes and demonstrations which have been withdrawn on the request of Sindh government I hope and pray that peace prevails due to the declaration of provincial holiday by the government to commemorate and mourn the killings two years ago.

If we come to look at it, people of Karachi irrespective of their political, ethnic or religious association want to live in peace. But, perhaps the leadership doesn't want it that way. Why can't this leadership sit together and resolve the differences through peaceful negotiations. Ironically, all the major parties are part of the coalition running the country/province and yet they are daggers drawn. The leadership needs to rise above their individual vested interests and petty gains to resolve the issue. It can be done. The leadership ought to have will to do it. But, does the leadership have that will, and more importantly, greatness? Besides resolving old issues regarding the quotas for various groups; locals, settlers, etc, there are two ways to resolve the mystery of May 12, 2007. The leadership should either agree to conduct a judicial inquiry and accept the court verdict or it should agree to, let bygones be bygones, and commit not to let such sad incidents happen in future. Sincerity of purpose is is missing but badly needed.

Pakistan has launched a full fledged military operation in Swat region to root out Taliban. It is generally perceived that the religious schools known as Madrassahs opened by various religious parties are the breeding grounds of these Taliban. All madrassahs may not be party to it but some, certainly, are. It's an open secret that there are certain madrassahs and related offices in Pakistan where the government officials can't even enter, what to talk of, their ability to monitor the activities in such areas. Musharraf tried to register these madrassahs but had to ultimate back track for fear of reaction from the proreligious parties. If there is nothing wrong taking place in madrassahs, why should their administrations oppose the registration. It is fair to infer that the writ of state doesn't exist in the madrassahs. Will the Army have to launch more operations to establish writ of state in these madassahs?

15,000 Troops have been deployed to deal with Taliban in Swat region. More reinforcements are being sought. Another 80,000 are deployed along Durand Line. Cleansing Swat region off Taliban will not rid Pakistan of these terrorists. We have Taliban in FATA(Federally Administered Tribal Areas of Pakistan); North and South Waziristan. There are terrorists operating in Baluchistan. Then, we have Taliban spread all over the country. If Pakistan chooses to use Army in all these areas against Taliban, I doubt if the entire Army will be enough to deal with the situation. Casualties of innocent civilians and the number of internally displaced persons in such an eventuality also needs to be assessed. We need to go to the roots of the problem. Intelligence network needs to be expanded manifold to identify the sources of recruitment, and, monetary and material support of Taliban and their leadership. Elimination of these sources supporting Taliban and their leadership will go a long way to solve the problem. This is what Indians did to control the uprising by the Sikhs in in mid eighties.

Although all political parties and wide cross section of society have supported the ongoing military operation in Swat region, life goes on as usual all over the country except for a few efforts by the media and one odd organization to mobilize the masses. The gravity of the current military operation is no less than the 1965 War. Area under control of Taliban is more than we lost to India, in fact, we captured more Indian territory than the area captured by them. The displacement of people during 1965 War was certainly far less than one million expected during the current operation. Duration of the 1965 War was seventeen days. Current military operation is going to last many weeks, if not months. Casualties toll expected in the current operation combined with what Army has suffered in years of its fighting with Taliban is more than what it suffered in 1965 War. Why then, the motivation of the people to support the current operation is less than what it was during 1965 War? The leadership needs to ponder over this short coming and do something to back up the forces. And, we must not forget that the operation in Swat region is just the beginning, many such operations will be required all over the country to root out terrorism and Taliban.

Prime Minister of Pakistan, Mr. Yousaf Raza Gilani, in a live televised speech, announced an all out military offensive against Taliban in Swat and its adjoining areas. The military operation has, in fact, been on for a few days now. The Prime Minister asked the nation to support the operation as it was necessary for the sovereignty of Pakistan. By and large, the speech has been well received and almost all political parties and cross sections of society appear to be well disposed towards the military operation. However, contrary to this verbal support, neither the government nor the people of Pakistan seem to be poised towards mobilization on war footing which should have been the case. Government is yet to hold duly agreed to All Parties Conference which should have been held before the speech. There is a need to form a kitchen cabinet to oversee the military operation. Around one million people of Swat region are migrating to the adjoining areas. Except for the belated release of funds by the government and efforts by a few NGOs, people of Pakistan have not been geared to put in their bit to alleviate the sufferings of these internally displaced persons (IDPs). About four years ago Pakistan experienced the worst of the earthquakes since its independence. The entire nation came into action and everyone put in its bit to help out the affectees of the earthquake. The leadership of Pakistan should galvanize its people to alleviate the sufferings of the IDPs; an act which by itself would send a strong signal to Taliban and the IDPs alike about nation's resolve to meet the crisis upfront.

Presidents of USA, Pakistan and Afghanistan, Mr.Barack Obama, Mr. Asif Ali Zardari and Mr. Karzai met in Washington and vowed to fight terrorism together. USA agreed to provide monetary and material support to both countries but made it conditional with the landmarks of progress by both countries. USA also served as an intermediary to ensure that Afghanistan and Pakistan cooperate with each other to achieve the common goal of cleansing their countries of Terrorists, particularly, belonging to Al-qaeda. America believes in and practices use of force as the only way to deal with the terrorists. The recent example being of the bombing in Afghanistan resulting in killing of around seventy Innocent civilians about which Ms.Hilary Clinton, US foreign secretary of state offered apologies and promised to conduct a joint inquiry. Neither her apology nor the joint inquiry is going to alleviate the sufferings of the affected families. Ever since the US invasion of Afghanistan in last eight years, soon after the episode of 9/11, thousands of Afghanis have been killed, many more injured/disabled and others migrated from one part of the country to the other besides four million Afghan refugees living in Pakistan. Although to a lesser degree, so has been the case in Pakistan. Pakistan Army has over eighty thousand of it troops deployed along porous Pak Afghan border. There was none prior to American invasion of Afghanistan. Pakistan has lost around three thousand of its soldiers fighting terrorists who cross over to its soil from Afghanistan. NATO has around fifty thousand troops in Afghanistan. Despite repeated calls to fence the Pak Afghan border, neither America nor Afghanistan agreed to it. Perhaps, fencing of the border would have made the job of NATO troops more difficult; fighting terrorists within Afghanistan. It is universally agreed that terrorism is on the increase in stead of being on the back foot. More and more people in the affected areas are joining terrorists in stead of supporting the American and Afghan government moves in Afghanistan. If all these forces, resources, casualties of troops and civilians have not reduced terrorism and have, in stead increased the same, isn't there a need to find some other means to deal with the terrorists. Casualties of civilians have been many times more than that of the terrorists. Isn't it state terrorism?

In total violation of Swat truce, Taliban are back in Swat. They have been openly patrolling in the area, looting and killing locals and government officials alike, and occupying public and private property/buildings of their choice. They left no choice with the government but to move Army to Swat to deal with them. Over one million locals are expected to be migrating from Swat, Buner and Dir areas. It is hoped that this time government remains firm in its decision to cleanse the area off Taliban through military operations unlike earlier lukewarm attempts of use of force and negotiations.

A suicide car-bomber drove into a Pakistani military convoy on Saturday. 25 soldiers and police personnel were killed besides two passers-by, and 65 others were wounded. The incident took place, 190 km (120 miles) west of Islamabad. Seven out of the 65 wounded were said to be in a critical condition. About eight vehicles in the convoy were destroyed.

A spokesman for Pakistani Taliban chief Baitullah Mehsud said militants would continue its attacks on security forces.
"It was retaliation for the U.S. drone strikes and security forces will have to see more attacks because our people have suffered many losses in the missile attacks," Hakimullah Mehsud said by telephone from an undisclosed location.

President Asif Ali Zardari told aid donors on Friday he would step up the fight against militants and said defeat for nuclear-armed Pakistan would be a defeat for the world.
His nation is a vital U.S. ally in its efforts to stabilize Afghanistan.