Pakistan

If the news released by Pakistan Army are to be believed, the operation against Taliban in Swat region is progressing successfully. It is hoped that such news are correct, otherwise, Pakistan Army will, sooner or later, be exposed and loose its trust in its citizens and even internationally. Taliban must be in a desparate situation. Their reactions in this state need to be carefully appreciated and appropriate measures should be taken against these expected reactions. For this purpose Pakistan can be split into three areas. Firstly Swat region, secondly, those areas where Taliban exist in organized way like North and South Waziristan, Khyber agency, Mohmand agency and the likes, and thirdly, the rest of Pakistan where there is relative peace and Taliban activities have been in the form of isolated terrorists actions like suicide bombings and explosions. The primary aim of Taliban will be to loosen the pressure faced by them in Swat region to break the encirclement so as to live to fight for another day. They are likely to do so by diverting the attention of Army, Pakistan government, people of Pakistan and the rest of the world from the current operations. In Swat region they will resort to hostage taking of the people trapped in the battleground, the news of which have already started appearing. Taliban can intensify their activities in second category of areas where they have some sort of domination/control which would require more troops to deal with the situation. In the rest of Pakistan, they are likely to increase the terrorist activities by resorting to more suicide attacks and explosions. The refugee camps established in the neighbourhood of Swat also offer themselves as soft targets. And, if by any chance, the situation permits, they will counter attack troops operating in Swat from outside the current battlefield. Kidnapping, particularly, of foreigners is yet another possibility.

So, in nutshell, by undertaking operation in Swat, the entire country has become more vulnerable to the terorists' activities of Taliban. Whereas, it is expected that the government must be taking appropriate measures to deal with the above mentioned possible reactions of Taliban, we, as citizens, also need to keep our eyes and ears open to protect ourselves and help government do its job. Gathering intelligence has so far been the weakest link to deal with Taliban. And, it is the failure of intelligence again which may offer success to Taliban achieving their short and long term objectives.