Pakistan

Eid ul Azha is due to be celebrated in about a week's time. After the military operation in Swat Malakand areas and the ongoing military operation in South Waziristan, we are having a large number of internally displaced persons, in millions in case of the former and in lakhs in case of the latter. All of these people need to be helped. Celebration of Eid ul Azha provides a large number of Pakistanis a good opportunity to help these IDPs.

Following the teachings of Islam, a large number of Pakistanis are going to spend millions of rupees to buy sacrificial goats and cows and slaughter them. Government, particularly army, and other agencies helping the IDPs should collect these sacrificial animals/money from the ones who intend buying the sacrificial animals and pass the same to the IDPs. The money so collected can be used to buy the animals from the neighborhood of the IDPs. Army is best suited for that as it is better organized and people have more faith in it. This will create a lot of goodwill amongst the IDPs and make them feel that their fellow Pakistanis care for them and remember them.

A number of government officials, including the top man, Mr. Zardari, have stated over last many days that military operation will also be carried out in Waziristan. Following these statements people in Waziristan have started leaving their homes and migrating to other places nearby. It appears that the right lessons have not been learnt from the ongoing Swat operation which is yet to be over even militarily. In case of Swat operation, surprise was achieved against Taliban at the cost of locals being caught unaware and becoming Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) in millions. In Waziristan , the locals have started migrating. Taliban, too, must be making good use of this time to either prepare for the expected military operation and fortify their positions or disperse and move away to other areas or maybe a combination of both.

Undertaking military operation in Waziristan on the lines of Swat operation will be unwise on part of the government and the military. It will stretch out the military. With reaction time having been provided to Taliban, results of the military operation are not likely to be as good as of the expected military victory in Swat region. And, last but not the least, we will have millions of more IDPs. IDPs of Swat were not armed as there is no tradition of carrying personal weapons in Swat region. IDPs of Waziristan, are going to be armed as by tradition, every local owns and carries weapons. The unrest in the camps of Swat IDPs is being borne by unarmed IDPs with some sort of forced as well as voluntary patience. It is not going to be the case with armed IDPs of Waziristan. It will be worth considering if the locals of Waziristan are organized into armed groups, called as lashkars, supported by the military and launched against Taliban as has been done at few places. However, it has to be ensured that these lashkars don't start equalling personal scores against locals. The menace of having millions of IDPs is too big to undertake another military operation. The government and the military need to find other ways to deal with Taliban. To kill one dirty fish, one doesn't have to empty the pond. There is need to home onto on the dirty fish only by gathering accurate and real time intelligence which has been a total failure to date.

Military victory is in sight, but we are paying a very heavy price for the same in terms of over 22.5 million Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs). Scarcity of resources, poor governance and management, looting and plundering, and a number of other ills prevalent in our society and our government, it is no less than a dream that these IDPs will ever be able to fall back to their homes as satisfied citizens. Most of these are going to find themselves deprived off their house hold belongings and their means of earnings. Some others may have to even reconstruct their houses destroyed by bombing during the battle. The life is going to start afresh for them confronting heavy odds. There is a need for our government to plan the resettlement of these IDPs in an orderly manner so that the military victory against Taliban is also converted into a social and political victory by winning the hearts and minds of the IDPs. If the same is not done, the seeds of another kind of Talibanization would be sown to grow quickly and pose similar threat some other time in the near future.

Freedom of media, freedom of speech and lack of coordination among army, provincial and federal governments are adding fuel to the fire in terms of the miseries faced by IDPs of Swat region. Watching different government officials' statements on the electronic media, hundreds of IDPS left their tents in the refugee camps and started moving towards their homes only to find barricades stopping them and soldiers telling them to get back. There have even been instances where IDPs reached their homes to find Taliban welcoming them and mistreating them. Such irresponsible statements have come from supposedly responsible officials including Mr. Rehman Malik, Federal Home Minisiter. It's a pity. If government can't alleviate the miseries of IDP, we should, at least, not add to their sufferings.

Our Islamist parties, Jamaat-e-Islami, Jamiat-e-Ulema-e-Islam Fazlulrehman Group, and even not so Islamic Tehreek-e-Insaaf continue to make hue and cry to stop the operation in Swat region and resort to negotiations with Taliban by an all parties committee. Where were these parties once Taliban started violating the Swat agreement? If these parties were genuinely interested in peace, they would have contacted Taliban on their own. Why did these parties not condemn the barbarous crimes committed by Taliban a fortnight short of Swat operation? The people of Pakistan have, through, their open support of Swat operation has marginalised the pseudo Islamist parties.

Government has announced increase in the head money of Fazlullah, the leader of Taliban in Swat, and four of his accomplices. There are dozens of other Al Qaeda and Taliban commanders, including Osama Bin Laden and Baitullah Mahsud, whose head money is more than enough to make a fortune. The latter two are yet to be captured despite lapse of many years. Raising head money has not worked to date and is not likely to work this time. Government has to find some other means to capture or kill the Al Qaeda and Taliban commanders!

The recent suicide attacks by Taliban in Lahore, Peshawar and Dera Ismail Khan on the same day about forty eight hours ago are being viewed as losing and retreating Talibans' reaction to the military operation in Swat. Whether Taliban are losing the battle in Swat or winning remains an open question. Even if we accept the daily briefings of the military spokesman, Swat operation can not be called a success. Killing over one thousand and capturing a hundred or so Taliban, and in return having 2.5 million IDPs, losing around a hundred soldiers and unknown number of civilian casualties can't be called a success. The recent attacks are far more significant than mere reaction of the 'losing' Taliban. Yes, it is a reaction but it must be viewed as a strong reaction through which Taliban have let every one know that they are there all over Pakistan and can pick and choose the time and place of their choice to strike and are capable of hitting at more than one target simultaneously. To date Taliban have proved to be better planners and executioners of their evil designs. Government can not cite one example where it was able take a better toll of Taliban. Taliban are expanding their activities and with every day passing they are proving themselves to be a bigger threat to the very sovereignty of Pakistan. Where all can Pakistan afford to undertake military operations of the like of Swat operation?

The Mutahidda Qaumi Movement (MQM), Jeay Sindh Qaumi Mahaz (JSQM), The Pakistan People’s Party-Shaheed Bhutto (PPP-SB) and The Sindh National Party (SNP), otherwise foes among themselves, are resisting the settlement of IDPs of Swat Operation in Karachi on the pretext that it would disturb the ethnic demography of the metropolitan city which would lead to violence. It was least expected from MQM which mostly comprises of refugees from India at the time of independence of Pakistan. It very clearly exposes the true agenda and the narrow objectives of these political parties some of whom claim to have their spread all over Pakistan. Although not related to IDPs, we hear similar voices of discontent from Baluchistan. The constitution of Pakistan very clearly grants the right to its citizens to move about and settle anywhere in the country. The aforementioned negative approach is a clear violation of the constitution. There is a need to resolve the issue in the light of our constitution in stead of political expediencies.

Pakistan army took around the foreign media on a flying trip to the operational area in Swat. During this trip the media was also shown the caves and the bunkers made by Taliban. It is highly appreciable that the troops were able to capture these caves and bunkers, and other such like hide outs of Taliban.

In the recent past, particularly, since the Swat operation, US media is repeatedly showing its concerns about the shifting of Al Qaeda infrastructure in Pakistan. American government officials have also acknowledged the move of Taliban and Al Qaeda from Afghanistan to Pakistan. Similarly, the American media has become pretty vocal in its concern about the safety of Pakistan's Nukes. America invaded Afghanistan to chase Al Qaeda whom it thought was responsible for 9/11. If American targets i.e Al Qaeda and Taliban are being projected/perceived to have moved to Pakistan, what could be the next move of Americans, if Pakistan, in their opinion is unable to deal with the two targets?

Ever since the beginning of Swat operation, the media has started terming the unrest caused by Taliban as insurgency in stead of terrorism as was the case in the past. Government, too, has termed the recent Taliban activities as insurgency challenging the writ of state rather than terrorism. Counter insurgency, the operation against insurgency, is a far more serious business than fighting against terrorism. Let us hope that this seriousness of the government persists till the total elimination of Taliban and the likes. Our people and the government have to fight it out together. It's likely to be a long drawn battle.

Over two million people of Swat region are reported to have become internally displaced persons (IDPs) and the number is increasing with everyday passing. These people have become refugees within their own country. Excluding the psychological dents in the lives of troops and IDPs, and unknown number of casualties of troops and civilians, let us calculate the financial expenses of these IDPs. Assuming the minimum daily expense to be Rs. 50.00 per day per head, rupees one hundred million per day will have to be spent. It is expected that it may take upto six months before these IDPs start resettling in their own homes. Daily expenses of IDPs for six months comes out to be rupees eighteen billion. Government has announced grant of Rs. 25000.00 per family to enable them to start their lives afresh. The money required to pay the compensatory allowance totals to be rupees ten billion. The sum total comes out to be rupees twenty eight billion. This estimate is very modest and doesn't include the expenses incurred by army undertaking the operation, the repairing the damages caused to the infrastructre. The Economic Advisor to the government has put this assessment to be around one billion US dollars i.e rupees eighty billion. All this is being done to eliminate around 5000 Taliban; each one of them costing us Rs. 16 million.

Daily Times in its issue of Thursday, May 21, 2009 has reported, "Six vehicles used by Taliban clad in black Elite Force uniforms were also destroyed during the operation. The security forces also defused seven improvised explosive devices. To a question, he (DG ISPR) said the military was investigating where the Taliban got the Elite Force vehicles and uniforms from."

If the loss of six vehicles of our police elite force is to be discovered only as late as above, we need to seriously look into the system of reporting and accounting in Pakistan Police. And, it may not be Police alone, we need to to look into other government departments. There are countless questions arising out of this discovery which must be thoroughly investigated and duly answered. The possibility of some officials conniving with Taliban can't be ruled out. It's common knowledge that any citizen losing his/her cell phone or a car immediately registers an FIR for fear of not being rounded up as a criminal if the car or the cell are later found to have been used in any criminal activity. Who is going to teach this to our police officials?

Swat operation has been on for over two weeks now. Twenty to thirty thousand troops have been fighting to eliminate, reportedly, 5000 Taliban. Going by the daily briefings of the army spokesman, around 1000 Taliban have been killed. One hundred or so soldiers have laid down their lives in the operation. Number of civilians' casualties is not known as the media has no access to the battle zone and the army spokesman has so far not given any number of these casualties. How many of Taliban have been able to flee is also not known? Having secured the peaks surrounding the towns of Swat, troops are now busy in search and destroy operation. Some of the Taliban are reported to have made residents, who did not leave their homes, hostages to be used as human shields once troops approach them. Despite all the precautions which army will take, some of these civilian hostages are bound to become casualties. Over two million locals of Swat region have become refugees in their own country, known as Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs). Whether the total number of casualties of troops and civilians exceeds that of Taliban or not, the battle of Swat has already been won by Taliban. Statistically, each of the Taliban has been able to cause unimaginable miseries to 4000 civilians who have become IDPs (divide 2,000,000 by 5,000 and you get the number of 4,000).

Army operation in Swat has reached a stage where troops are in the process of encircling towns. Whereas majority of the residents have left, there are still a reasonable number of civilians who continue to stick on to their houses. Troops and Taliban have their respective lines of communication to feed them, these civilians stuck in between have no such arrangement. Not only that, these civilians are considered foes by troops and Taliban alike. There are some civilians who have been made hostage by Taliban to serve as human shield against troops closing in. It's a very dicey situation. Army has to be extra ordinarily careful to see that the collateral damage in terms of loss of innocent lives is restricted to the minimum.

All Parties Conference (APC) was held yesterday in Islamabad under the chairmanship of Mr. Yousaf Raza Gilani, Prime Minister of Pakistan. It has indeed been a rare and miraculous phenomenon that all political forces of Pakistan have unanimously endorsed the current Swat operation. It is highly commendable. Given this sort of political will and resolve seen in APC, optimism about our ability to deal with the menace of Taliban and terrorism stand strengthened. The APC has initiated a lightening ray of hope under the prevalent dismal situation.

The following is the text of the resolution:

1. Recalled, the consensus resolution passed by a joint sitting of parliament on October 22, 2008;

2. Reiterated, its support of the resolution passed on October 2, 2008, and the subsequent recommendations made by the parliamentary committee on national security as required by the resolution and impressed upon the need for speedy implementation;

3. Reaffirmed, its commitment to preserve, protect and defend the Constitution and sovereignty of the state of Pakistan;

4. Emphasised, the need to establish and maintain the writ of the state and ensure supremacy of the rule of law;

5. Condemned, all violent challenges to the Constitution and the state of Pakistan;

6. Expressed, grief for the martyrdom of security personnel and innocent civilians;

7. Maintaining, that the safety and security of civilians is paramount and it should be ensured that minimum harm is caused to the non-combatant civilian population;

8. Re-emphasised, the need to ensure the safety, well being and rehabilitation in their respective areas of the internally displaced persons;

9. Called upon, the Pakistani people to respond as one nation to mitigate the suffering of our brothers and sisters, the Internally Displaced Persons;

10. Emphasised, that Pakistan is a vibrant dynamic democracy;

11 Reaffirmed, that Pakistan’s nuclear assets were under an effective command and control authority;

12 Asserted, that the strategic decisions regarding military issues, including troops’ deployment, are the sole prerogative of the state of Pakistan;

13. Appreciated, the tremendous sacrifices given by the Pakistani people economically, politically and in terms of human life while fighting terrorism, more than any other country or people;

14. Condemned, the violation of Pakistan’s optical economic and territorial sovereignty, including drone attacks; and

15. Conveyed, that Pakistan is a sovereign state and any aid, economic or military which carries cardinalities will be counter-productive.

Intelligence agencies of Pakistan have a big name the world over. These agencies have certainly done wonders in the past. Taliban are nothing but their creation during the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. Prior knowledge about Taliban should have been an asset for these intelligence agencies to build on. That hasn't happened. It is the failure of these agencies to provide accurate information about Taliban leadership, dispositions etc which necessitated and is also the cause of prolongation of Swat operation and the likes. Otherwise, neutralizing 5000 Taliban (reported to be present in Swat region according to military spokesman) was not a big deal and it would not have required undertaking such a big operation involving 20 to 30 thousand troops and causing over two million people homeless IDPs. It is doubtful if the army operation will be able to kill/capture all of the 5000 Taliban. There are news bout Taliban fleeing from the Swat region. So, at the end of the day, the gains of Swat operation aren't likely to be worth the effort and the price paid. We need to beef up our intelligence agencies or even reshuffle them, provide them resources in plenty to acquire accurate information about Taliban and the likes. Let us concentrate on this aspect rather than planning Swat like operations elsewhere in the country. We don't have to kill an ant with an elephant. Hiring a thief to catch a thief is a far better proposition. Buying a few hundred of Taliban to neutralize the rest is the course we need to follow. If foreign agencies, as is the perception, can buy Taliban against us, why can't we buy some of them to neutralize the rest.

The Islamist political parties of Pakistan, namely, Jamaat-Islami and Jamiat-e-Ulema-e-Islam Fazlul Rehaman group, and, Tehreek-e-Insaaf of Imran Khan have asked the government to halt the current military operation in Swat region and resort to negotiations. Halting the current operation on the pretext of negotiations will once again provide Taliban the badly needed breathing space and time to rearm and recoup like it happened in the recent past under the cover of Swat Truce and Nizam-e-Adl regulation. It is least likely that the government would halt the operation, and it should not. However, the government's call to Taliban to surrender as a precondition to halt the operation makes sense but is least likely to be heeded by Taliban.

We, however, need to look beyond the Swat operation. Mr. Zardari, the President of Pakistan, has vowed to undertake Swat like military operations in the tribal areas to rid the country of Taliban. This is what the country can ill afford. It is here that the government should take the above three parties on board and ask them to initiate the negotiations with Taliban. A committee, having representation of all the political parties, should be formed by the government to resume negotiations with Taliban for a peaceful solution. Whether the negotiations meet with success or failure, the government will be well disposed to proceed further in either case. Learning from the on going operation in Swat, efforts of reconciliations must be made. Pardoning a few hundred or even a few thousand Taliban in exchange for peace will not be a bad bargain.

Mr. Asif Ali Zardari, President of Islamic Republic of Pakistan, has vowed to undertake more military operations on the lines of Swat Operation, Rah-e-Rast, to rid the country of Taliban. The ongoing operation has to date resulted in killing of 1000 Taliban viz-a-viz losing around 100 soldiers. The number of civilians killed is not known yet. It would be fine if the equation was limited to the aforementioned figures. But, that's not the case. The operation has made around two million people of Swat region refugees within their own country; homeless IDPs. There are reported to be around 5000 Taliban operating in Swat region. The number of soldiers deployed against them initially was 15000 who were later reinforced, the number of which is not officially known. It would be fair to assume that the current strength of the troops operating should be around 25000. Continuation of the current operations, perhaps, is a sour pill which has to be taken. However, we need to learn from the same. With eighty thousand troops deployed along Afghan border and the remaining staying in the cantonments focused on India, how many more troops can be spared to undertake Swat like operations? How many more (in millions!) IDPs can we look after? How many more unaccounted for civilian casualties can we bear? How many times can we keep on begging the rest of the world to help us deal with the problems of IDPs? Some other solution has got to be found to resolve this problem.

Government has called All Parties Conference (APC) regarding the prevailing situation of terrorism, particularly, the current army operation in Swat region. The conference is due to be held on Monday, May 18, 2009. This conference is going to follow the in camera briefing by COAS to representatives of all political parties in the Parliament held on May 15, 2009. The APC is going to also include those political parties which did not take part in the last general elections. Army operation has been in progress since the beginning of this month and is at the stage of search and destroy. Army has been able to capture the important heights surrounding the towns and control the entrance/exit routes. Taliban surrounded by the army are being killed and some of them have started surrendering. Now, that the army operation is nearing its success, some of these parties have started echoing the resolution of the problem through negotiations implying that the army operation should be stopped. Short of achieving success, army operations against Taliban have been halted in the past through peace agreements, a number of times. It has been a failed practice in the past as every time Taliban used these agreements to gain time to reorganize. This time government and army appear determined to complete the operation and eliminate Taliban from Swat region. The difference of opinion between the parties opposing the operation and the government is pretty wide and not likely to be bridged by the APC. It is, therefore, not understood as to what is going to be the outcome of the APC. It will be better if all parties focus their attention on helping the IDPS and chalking out future course of action to deal with Taliban elsewhere in the country.