Pakistan

Military victory is in sight, but we are paying a very heavy price for the same in terms of over 22.5 million Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs). Scarcity of resources, poor governance and management, looting and plundering, and a number of other ills prevalent in our society and our government, it is no less than a dream that these IDPs will ever be able to fall back to their homes as satisfied citizens. Most of these are going to find themselves deprived off their house hold belongings and their means of earnings. Some others may have to even reconstruct their houses destroyed by bombing during the battle. The life is going to start afresh for them confronting heavy odds. There is a need for our government to plan the resettlement of these IDPs in an orderly manner so that the military victory against Taliban is also converted into a social and political victory by winning the hearts and minds of the IDPs. If the same is not done, the seeds of another kind of Talibanization would be sown to grow quickly and pose similar threat some other time in the near future.

Freedom of media, freedom of speech and lack of coordination among army, provincial and federal governments are adding fuel to the fire in terms of the miseries faced by IDPs of Swat region. Watching different government officials' statements on the electronic media, hundreds of IDPS left their tents in the refugee camps and started moving towards their homes only to find barricades stopping them and soldiers telling them to get back. There have even been instances where IDPs reached their homes to find Taliban welcoming them and mistreating them. Such irresponsible statements have come from supposedly responsible officials including Mr. Rehman Malik, Federal Home Minisiter. It's a pity. If government can't alleviate the miseries of IDP, we should, at least, not add to their sufferings.

Over two million people of Swat region are reported to have become internally displaced persons (IDPs) and the number is increasing with everyday passing. These people have become refugees within their own country. Excluding the psychological dents in the lives of troops and IDPs, and unknown number of casualties of troops and civilians, let us calculate the financial expenses of these IDPs. Assuming the minimum daily expense to be Rs. 50.00 per day per head, rupees one hundred million per day will have to be spent. It is expected that it may take upto six months before these IDPs start resettling in their own homes. Daily expenses of IDPs for six months comes out to be rupees eighteen billion. Government has announced grant of Rs. 25000.00 per family to enable them to start their lives afresh. The money required to pay the compensatory allowance totals to be rupees ten billion. The sum total comes out to be rupees twenty eight billion. This estimate is very modest and doesn't include the expenses incurred by army undertaking the operation, the repairing the damages caused to the infrastructre. The Economic Advisor to the government has put this assessment to be around one billion US dollars i.e rupees eighty billion. All this is being done to eliminate around 5000 Taliban; each one of them costing us Rs. 16 million.

Swat operation has been on for over two weeks now. Twenty to thirty thousand troops have been fighting to eliminate, reportedly, 5000 Taliban. Going by the daily briefings of the army spokesman, around 1000 Taliban have been killed. One hundred or so soldiers have laid down their lives in the operation. Number of civilians' casualties is not known as the media has no access to the battle zone and the army spokesman has so far not given any number of these casualties. How many of Taliban have been able to flee is also not known? Having secured the peaks surrounding the towns of Swat, troops are now busy in search and destroy operation. Some of the Taliban are reported to have made residents, who did not leave their homes, hostages to be used as human shields once troops approach them. Despite all the precautions which army will take, some of these civilian hostages are bound to become casualties. Over two million locals of Swat region have become refugees in their own country, known as Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs). Whether the total number of casualties of troops and civilians exceeds that of Taliban or not, the battle of Swat has already been won by Taliban. Statistically, each of the Taliban has been able to cause unimaginable miseries to 4000 civilians who have become IDPs (divide 2,000,000 by 5,000 and you get the number of 4,000).

Jamaat-ul-Dawa (JUD) was banned by Pakistan government once the organization was put under ban by UNO after the Mumbai Attacks. It has been reported by a section of media that the banned Jamaat-ul-Dawa has resurfaced under the name of some other organization and has established camps to help the IDPs of Swat region. Resurfacing of banned organizations under some other names is not a new phenomenon. The latest news, once, again, confirms government's inability to keep track of such like banned organizations. The violation of ban kills the very purpose of banning any organization.

Sympathizing with IDPs and helping them alleviate their sufferings is a noble cause but using the same to create pro Taliban sentiment with a view to recruit more Taliban is dangerous. Even if JUD and the likes are able to achieve fractional success in these attempts, the battle of winning minds and hearts of IDPs would be lost to a greater degree. IDPs are likely to be looked after better by JUD and the likes than the government agencies the propogation of which will result in psychological victory of these pro Taliban organizations.

It is sad to see Pakistan Muslim League, Nawaz Group PML (N), Jamaat-e-Islami and Jamiat- e - Ulema-Islam, Fazl-ul-Rehman Group Group (JUI, F) opposing the present army operation in Swat on the pretext that they were not taken into confidence about the same, and also accusing the government that it had not foreseen and planned to take care of the Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) and refugees. If we recall, the acceleration with which terrorism was being spread in Swat region despite the implementation of the Nizam-e-Adl (system of justice), loss of any time would have resulted in the situation going totally out of hand. The army operation launched by the government had to be immediate and with surprise. The process of taking all on board and preparations to receive the IDPs would have resulted in loss of the surprise factor. Statements of the leadership of the three above mentioned political parties after the telecast of interview of Sufi Muhammad heading defunct (Tehreek-e-Nifaz-Sharia-e Muhammdi, translated in English as Movement for Implementation of Muhammade Law (TNSM) clearly indicated that the two parties favoured strict action against Taliban. Sufi Muhammad had promised that Taliban would surrender after the implementation of Niza-e-Adl. In stead of surrendering, Taliban came out in the open killing people including government officials, looting public and private property including half a dozen banks. It is not understood as to why they have changed their stance. It's time to unite against a common enemy and a common threat and not of scoring points against each other.

A very large number of IDPs have moved to their relatives all over the country starting from the neighbourhood of Swat all the way to Karachi. The number of these IDPs is estimated to be more than 50% of the total number. These relatives (host families) may be able to look after these IDPs for a short period of time but not indefinitely. Although a difficult proposition, some means need to be devised whereby the host families are registered and duly compensated for their generosity to host their relative IDPs. Otherwise, sooner or later, the IDPs living with the host families will have to leave their hosts and move either to wilderness or to refugee camps which certainly will not be a good situation. If the IDPs are not duly taken care of and resettled in their homes after the Army operation, the operation against Taliban in Swat region would be lost despite success expected in the battleground.