Pakistan

Pakistan army deserves to be complimented for recovering the kidnapped students and staff of Cadet College Razmak within hours of the sad incident. Taliban kidnapped the students and staff, travelling in buses, on their way home for Summer vacation. It happened about twenty miles away from Bannu yesterday evening. Army quickly came into action. The speed with which it was able to trace and recover all kidnapped unhurt within twelve hours is highly commendable. Despite the fact that the situation of security is very bad and Taliban are executing the killings and kidnappings at will all over Pakistan, it is reassuring that all is not lost yet an that we can beat the menace of Taliban.

Army operation in Swat has reached a stage where troops are in the process of encircling towns. Whereas majority of the residents have left, there are still a reasonable number of civilians who continue to stick on to their houses. Troops and Taliban have their respective lines of communication to feed them, these civilians stuck in between have no such arrangement. Not only that, these civilians are considered foes by troops and Taliban alike. There are some civilians who have been made hostage by Taliban to serve as human shield against troops closing in. It's a very dicey situation. Army has to be extra ordinarily careful to see that the collateral damage in terms of loss of innocent lives is restricted to the minimum.

All Parties Conference (APC) was held yesterday in Islamabad under the chairmanship of Mr. Yousaf Raza Gilani, Prime Minister of Pakistan. It has indeed been a rare and miraculous phenomenon that all political forces of Pakistan have unanimously endorsed the current Swat operation. It is highly commendable. Given this sort of political will and resolve seen in APC, optimism about our ability to deal with the menace of Taliban and terrorism stand strengthened. The APC has initiated a lightening ray of hope under the prevalent dismal situation.

The following is the text of the resolution:

1. Recalled, the consensus resolution passed by a joint sitting of parliament on October 22, 2008;

2. Reiterated, its support of the resolution passed on October 2, 2008, and the subsequent recommendations made by the parliamentary committee on national security as required by the resolution and impressed upon the need for speedy implementation;

3. Reaffirmed, its commitment to preserve, protect and defend the Constitution and sovereignty of the state of Pakistan;

4. Emphasised, the need to establish and maintain the writ of the state and ensure supremacy of the rule of law;

5. Condemned, all violent challenges to the Constitution and the state of Pakistan;

6. Expressed, grief for the martyrdom of security personnel and innocent civilians;

7. Maintaining, that the safety and security of civilians is paramount and it should be ensured that minimum harm is caused to the non-combatant civilian population;

8. Re-emphasised, the need to ensure the safety, well being and rehabilitation in their respective areas of the internally displaced persons;

9. Called upon, the Pakistani people to respond as one nation to mitigate the suffering of our brothers and sisters, the Internally Displaced Persons;

10. Emphasised, that Pakistan is a vibrant dynamic democracy;

11 Reaffirmed, that Pakistan’s nuclear assets were under an effective command and control authority;

12 Asserted, that the strategic decisions regarding military issues, including troops’ deployment, are the sole prerogative of the state of Pakistan;

13. Appreciated, the tremendous sacrifices given by the Pakistani people economically, politically and in terms of human life while fighting terrorism, more than any other country or people;

14. Condemned, the violation of Pakistan’s optical economic and territorial sovereignty, including drone attacks; and

15. Conveyed, that Pakistan is a sovereign state and any aid, economic or military which carries cardinalities will be counter-productive.

The Islamist political parties of Pakistan, namely, Jamaat-Islami and Jamiat-e-Ulema-e-Islam Fazlul Rehaman group, and, Tehreek-e-Insaaf of Imran Khan have asked the government to halt the current military operation in Swat region and resort to negotiations. Halting the current operation on the pretext of negotiations will once again provide Taliban the badly needed breathing space and time to rearm and recoup like it happened in the recent past under the cover of Swat Truce and Nizam-e-Adl regulation. It is least likely that the government would halt the operation, and it should not. However, the government's call to Taliban to surrender as a precondition to halt the operation makes sense but is least likely to be heeded by Taliban.

We, however, need to look beyond the Swat operation. Mr. Zardari, the President of Pakistan, has vowed to undertake Swat like military operations in the tribal areas to rid the country of Taliban. This is what the country can ill afford. It is here that the government should take the above three parties on board and ask them to initiate the negotiations with Taliban. A committee, having representation of all the political parties, should be formed by the government to resume negotiations with Taliban for a peaceful solution. Whether the negotiations meet with success or failure, the government will be well disposed to proceed further in either case. Learning from the on going operation in Swat, efforts of reconciliations must be made. Pardoning a few hundred or even a few thousand Taliban in exchange for peace will not be a bad bargain.

Mr. Asif Ali Zardari, President of Islamic Republic of Pakistan, has vowed to undertake more military operations on the lines of Swat Operation, Rah-e-Rast, to rid the country of Taliban. The ongoing operation has to date resulted in killing of 1000 Taliban viz-a-viz losing around 100 soldiers. The number of civilians killed is not known yet. It would be fine if the equation was limited to the aforementioned figures. But, that's not the case. The operation has made around two million people of Swat region refugees within their own country; homeless IDPs. There are reported to be around 5000 Taliban operating in Swat region. The number of soldiers deployed against them initially was 15000 who were later reinforced, the number of which is not officially known. It would be fair to assume that the current strength of the troops operating should be around 25000. Continuation of the current operations, perhaps, is a sour pill which has to be taken. However, we need to learn from the same. With eighty thousand troops deployed along Afghan border and the remaining staying in the cantonments focused on India, how many more troops can be spared to undertake Swat like operations? How many more (in millions!) IDPs can we look after? How many more unaccounted for civilian casualties can we bear? How many times can we keep on begging the rest of the world to help us deal with the problems of IDPs? Some other solution has got to be found to resolve this problem.

Jamaat-ul-Dawa (JUD) was banned by Pakistan government once the organization was put under ban by UNO after the Mumbai Attacks. It has been reported by a section of media that the banned Jamaat-ul-Dawa has resurfaced under the name of some other organization and has established camps to help the IDPs of Swat region. Resurfacing of banned organizations under some other names is not a new phenomenon. The latest news, once, again, confirms government's inability to keep track of such like banned organizations. The violation of ban kills the very purpose of banning any organization.

Sympathizing with IDPs and helping them alleviate their sufferings is a noble cause but using the same to create pro Taliban sentiment with a view to recruit more Taliban is dangerous. Even if JUD and the likes are able to achieve fractional success in these attempts, the battle of winning minds and hearts of IDPs would be lost to a greater degree. IDPs are likely to be looked after better by JUD and the likes than the government agencies the propogation of which will result in psychological victory of these pro Taliban organizations.

It is sad to see Pakistan Muslim League, Nawaz Group PML (N), Jamaat-e-Islami and Jamiat- e - Ulema-Islam, Fazl-ul-Rehman Group Group (JUI, F) opposing the present army operation in Swat on the pretext that they were not taken into confidence about the same, and also accusing the government that it had not foreseen and planned to take care of the Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) and refugees. If we recall, the acceleration with which terrorism was being spread in Swat region despite the implementation of the Nizam-e-Adl (system of justice), loss of any time would have resulted in the situation going totally out of hand. The army operation launched by the government had to be immediate and with surprise. The process of taking all on board and preparations to receive the IDPs would have resulted in loss of the surprise factor. Statements of the leadership of the three above mentioned political parties after the telecast of interview of Sufi Muhammad heading defunct (Tehreek-e-Nifaz-Sharia-e Muhammdi, translated in English as Movement for Implementation of Muhammade Law (TNSM) clearly indicated that the two parties favoured strict action against Taliban. Sufi Muhammad had promised that Taliban would surrender after the implementation of Niza-e-Adl. In stead of surrendering, Taliban came out in the open killing people including government officials, looting public and private property including half a dozen banks. It is not understood as to why they have changed their stance. It's time to unite against a common enemy and a common threat and not of scoring points against each other.

It must be clearly understood that over one million Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) of Swat are suffering for our sake. These IDPs refused to accept the rule of Taliban and opted to flee their homes, a scarifice of life time. If these IDPs are left high and dry, many of them will fall prey to Talibanization and then, it will be the turn of the rich and the poor alike living in currently unaffected areas to become IDPs or face the wrath of Taliban.

Although government agencies, and some of the philanthropist individuals and organizations have stepped up their activities to help the IDPs, lot more needs to be done. We have thousands of rich individuals and companies who can very conveniently set aside a fraction, if not a part, of their income towards this end. But, this s not happening. Perhaps, these individuals and companies mistakenly think that it is none of their concern. Political leadership of the government and opposition alike should also set personal examples; one of the important traits of leadership. Media must give more coverage to the efforts of philanthropists who are in the lead. Chamber of Commerce, Mardan has established a refugee camp. Other chambers of commerce and organizations should follow this example. Once the leadership and the rich come forward, masses would follow. The battle against Taliban, expected to be won by the army in the battleground, must also be won in the hearts and minds of IDPs. We have no other choice.

If the news released by Pakistan Army are to be believed, the operation against Taliban in Swat region is progressing successfully. It is hoped that such news are correct, otherwise, Pakistan Army will, sooner or later, be exposed and loose its trust in its citizens and even internationally. Taliban must be in a desparate situation. Their reactions in this state need to be carefully appreciated and appropriate measures should be taken against these expected reactions. For this purpose Pakistan can be split into three areas. Firstly Swat region, secondly, those areas where Taliban exist in organized way like North and South Waziristan, Khyber agency, Mohmand agency and the likes, and thirdly, the rest of Pakistan where there is relative peace and Taliban activities have been in the form of isolated terrorists actions like suicide bombings and explosions. The primary aim of Taliban will be to loosen the pressure faced by them in Swat region to break the encirclement so as to live to fight for another day. They are likely to do so by diverting the attention of Army, Pakistan government, people of Pakistan and the rest of the world from the current operations. In Swat region they will resort to hostage taking of the people trapped in the battleground, the news of which have already started appearing. Taliban can intensify their activities in second category of areas where they have some sort of domination/control which would require more troops to deal with the situation. In the rest of Pakistan, they are likely to increase the terrorist activities by resorting to more suicide attacks and explosions. The refugee camps established in the neighbourhood of Swat also offer themselves as soft targets. And, if by any chance, the situation permits, they will counter attack troops operating in Swat from outside the current battlefield. Kidnapping, particularly, of foreigners is yet another possibility.

So, in nutshell, by undertaking operation in Swat, the entire country has become more vulnerable to the terorists' activities of Taliban. Whereas, it is expected that the government must be taking appropriate measures to deal with the above mentioned possible reactions of Taliban, we, as citizens, also need to keep our eyes and ears open to protect ourselves and help government do its job. Gathering intelligence has so far been the weakest link to deal with Taliban. And, it is the failure of intelligence again which may offer success to Taliban achieving their short and long term objectives.

15,000 Troops have been deployed to deal with Taliban in Swat region. More reinforcements are being sought. Another 80,000 are deployed along Durand Line. Cleansing Swat region off Taliban will not rid Pakistan of these terrorists. We have Taliban in FATA(Federally Administered Tribal Areas of Pakistan); North and South Waziristan. There are terrorists operating in Baluchistan. Then, we have Taliban spread all over the country. If Pakistan chooses to use Army in all these areas against Taliban, I doubt if the entire Army will be enough to deal with the situation. Casualties of innocent civilians and the number of internally displaced persons in such an eventuality also needs to be assessed. We need to go to the roots of the problem. Intelligence network needs to be expanded manifold to identify the sources of recruitment, and, monetary and material support of Taliban and their leadership. Elimination of these sources supporting Taliban and their leadership will go a long way to solve the problem. This is what Indians did to control the uprising by the Sikhs in in mid eighties.

Although all political parties and wide cross section of society have supported the ongoing military operation in Swat region, life goes on as usual all over the country except for a few efforts by the media and one odd organization to mobilize the masses. The gravity of the current military operation is no less than the 1965 War. Area under control of Taliban is more than we lost to India, in fact, we captured more Indian territory than the area captured by them. The displacement of people during 1965 War was certainly far less than one million expected during the current operation. Duration of the 1965 War was seventeen days. Current military operation is going to last many weeks, if not months. Casualties toll expected in the current operation combined with what Army has suffered in years of its fighting with Taliban is more than what it suffered in 1965 War. Why then, the motivation of the people to support the current operation is less than what it was during 1965 War? The leadership needs to ponder over this short coming and do something to back up the forces. And, we must not forget that the operation in Swat region is just the beginning, many such operations will be required all over the country to root out terrorism and Taliban.

Prime Minister of Pakistan, Mr. Yousaf Raza Gilani, in a live televised speech, announced an all out military offensive against Taliban in Swat and its adjoining areas. The military operation has, in fact, been on for a few days now. The Prime Minister asked the nation to support the operation as it was necessary for the sovereignty of Pakistan. By and large, the speech has been well received and almost all political parties and cross sections of society appear to be well disposed towards the military operation. However, contrary to this verbal support, neither the government nor the people of Pakistan seem to be poised towards mobilization on war footing which should have been the case. Government is yet to hold duly agreed to All Parties Conference which should have been held before the speech. There is a need to form a kitchen cabinet to oversee the military operation. Around one million people of Swat region are migrating to the adjoining areas. Except for the belated release of funds by the government and efforts by a few NGOs, people of Pakistan have not been geared to put in their bit to alleviate the sufferings of these internally displaced persons (IDPs). About four years ago Pakistan experienced the worst of the earthquakes since its independence. The entire nation came into action and everyone put in its bit to help out the affectees of the earthquake. The leadership of Pakistan should galvanize its people to alleviate the sufferings of the IDPs; an act which by itself would send a strong signal to Taliban and the IDPs alike about nation's resolve to meet the crisis upfront.